How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle

“Advance copies of Ray Dalio’s new book about how countries go broke have become a hot read in Washington.” — The New York Times

“This book is a gift to humanity… Ray provides a solution to what is the biggest and most certain threat to our prosperity.” — Henry M. Paulson Jr.

“An invaluable resource for policymakers, investors, and citizens.” — Lawrence H. Summers

From Ray Dalio, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles and one of the world’s most influential investors, comes a powerful and timely warning about the future of the global economy.

In How Countries Go Broke, Dalio explores the urgent and complex issue of massive government debt—and what happens when it becomes unsustainable. Can a country like the United States really go bankrupt? What would that look like? And what can be done to avoid disaster?

Using insights from history and real-world crises—from the 2008 financial meltdown to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis—Dalio introduces his “Big Debt Cycle” framework, showing how debt builds, peaks, and collapses. He outlines how nations like the U.S., China, Japan, and others are now approaching critical debt points.

But this is more than just an economics book. Dalio ties the debt cycle into larger global forces: rising political tension, geopolitical conflict, natural disasters, pandemics, and the rapid evolution of technology, especially AI. All of these, he argues, are converging into a broader transformation he calls the “Overall Big Cycle.”